The biochemical pattern defines MASLD phenotypes linked to distinct histology and prognosis.

BACKGROUND: MASLD can manifest as hepatocellular damage, which can result in mild elevation of aminotransferases. However, in some patients, MASLD presents with cholestatic pattern. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the biochemical pattern on the natural course of MASLD, including liver damage in histology, the accuracy of non-invasive tests(NITs), and prognosis. METHODS: Multicenter study enrolling 2156 patients with biopsy-proven MASLD, who were classified based on their[ALT/ULN)]/[(ALP/ULN)] levels at the time of biopsy: (a) hepatocellular pattern(H), > 5; (b) mixed pattern(M),2-5; (c) cholestatic pattern(C), < 2. OUTCOMES: (a) histological evaluation of the single components of NAS, MASH, and fibrosis; (b) NITs and transient elastography assessing advanced fibrosis; (c) prognosis determined by the appearance of decompensated cirrhosis and death. RESULTS: Out of the 2156 patients, 22.9% exhibited the H-pattern, whilst 31.7% exhibited the C-pattern. Severe steatosis, ballooning, lobular inflammation, and MASH (56.4% H vs. 41.9% M vs. 31.9% C) were more common in H-pattern (p = 0.0001),whilst C-pattern was linked to cirrhosis (5.8% H vs. 5.6% M vs. 10.9% C; p = 0.0001). FIB-4(0.74(95% CI 0.69-0.79) vs. 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.85); p = 0.005) and Hepamet Fibrosis Score(0.77 (95% CI 0.69-0.85) vs. 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.87); p = 0.044)exhibited lower AUROCs in the H-pattern. The C-pattern[HR 2.37 (95% CI 1.12-5.02); p = 0.024], along with age, diabetes, and cirrhosis were independently associated with mortality. Most patients maintained their initial biochemical pattern during the second evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: The H-pattern exhibited greater necro-inflammation in the histology than the C-pattern, whereas the latter showed more cirrhosis. The accuracy of NITs in detecting fibrosis was decreased in H-pattern. The occurrence of decompensated events and mortality was predominant in C-pattern. Therefore, identifying MASLD phenotypes based on the biochemical presentation could be relevant for clinical practice.

Predictive factors for decompensating events in patients with cirrhosis with primary biliary cholangitis under different lines of therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The landscape in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has changed with the advent of second-line treatments. However, the use of obeticholic acid (OCA) and fibrates in PBC-related cirrhosis is challenging. We assessed the impact of receiving a second-line therapy as a risk factor for decompensated cirrhosis in a real-world population with cirrhosis and PBC, and identify the predictive factors for decompensated cirrhosis in these patients. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Multicenter study enrolling 388 patients with PBC-cirrhosis from the Spanish ColHai registry. Biopsy (20%), ultrasound (59%), or transient elastography (21%) defined cirrhosis, and the presence of varices and splenomegaly defined clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). Paris-II and PBC OCA international study of efficacy criteria determined the response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), fibrates (n=93), and OCA (n=104). The incidence of decompensated cirrhosis decreased for UDCA versus OCA or fibrates in the real-world population, but they were similar considering the propensity score-matched cohort (UDCA 3.77 vs. second-line therapy 4.5 100 persons-year, respectively), as patients on second-line therapy exhibited advanced liver disease. Consequently, GGT, albumin, platelets, clinically significant portal hypertension, and UDCA response were associated with a decompensating event. OCA response (achieved in 52% of patients) was associated with bilirubin (OR 0.21 [95% CI: 0.06-0.73]) and AST (OR 0.97 [95% CI: 0.95-0.99]), while fibrate response (achieved in 55% of patients) with AST [OR 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95-0.98]). In patients treated with OCA, drug response (sHR 0.23 [95% CI: 0.08-0.64]), diabetes (sHR 5.62 [95% CI: 2.02-15.68]), albumin (sHR 0.34 [95% CI: 0.13-0.89]), and platelets (sHR 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98-1.00]) were related to decompensation. In patients treated with fibrate, drug response (sHR 0.36 (95% CI: 0.14-0.95]), albumin (sHR 0.36 (95% CI: 0.16-0.81]), and clinically significant portal hypertension (sHR 3.70 (95% CI: 1.17-11.70]) were associated with decompensated cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced PBC, rather than OCA and fibrates, was found to be associated with decompensating events. Therefore, biochemical and clinical variables should be considered when making decisions about the management of these drugs. Moreover, a positive response to OCA and fibrates reduced the risk of decompensation.

Serum ferritin levels can predict long-term outcomes in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

OBJECTIVE: Hyperferritinaemia is associated with liver fibrosis severity in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), but the longitudinal implications have not been thoroughly investigated. We assessed the role of serum ferritin in predicting long-term outcomes or death. DESIGN: We evaluated the relationship between baseline serum ferritin and longitudinal events in a multicentre cohort of 1342 patients. Four survival models considering ferritin with confounders or non-invasive scoring systems were applied with repeated five-fold cross-validation schema. Prediction performance was evaluated in terms of Harrell's C-index and its improvement by including ferritin as a covariate. RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 96 months. Liver-related events occurred in 7.7%, hepatocellular carcinoma in 1.9%, cardiovascular events in 10.9%, extrahepatic cancers in 8.3% and all-cause mortality in 5.8%. Hyperferritinaemia was associated with a 50% increased risk of liver-related events and 27% of all-cause mortality. A stepwise increase in baseline ferritin thresholds was associated with a statistical increase in C-index, ranging between 0.02 (lasso-penalised Cox regression) and 0.03 (ridge-penalised Cox regression); the risk of developing liver-related events mainly increased from threshold 215.5 µg/L (median HR=1.71 and C-index=0.71) and the risk of overall mortality from threshold 272 µg/L (median HR=1.49 and C-index=0.70). The inclusion of serum ferritin thresholds (215.5 µg/L and 272 µg/L) in predictive models increased the performance of Fibrosis-4 and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score in the longitudinal risk assessment of liver-related events (C-indices>0.71) and overall mortality (C-indices>0.65). CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the potential use of serum ferritin values for predicting the long-term prognosis of patients with MASLD.

Novel insights into metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease preclinical models.

Metabolic-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) encompasses a wide spectrum of metabolic conditions associated with an excess of fat accumulation in the liver, ranging from simple hepatic steatosis to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Finding appropriate tools to study its development and progression is essential to address essential unmet therapeutic and staging needs. This review discusses advantages and shortcomings of different dietary, chemical and genetic factors that can be used to mimic this disease and its progression in mice from a hepatic and metabolic point of view. Also, this review will highlight some additional factors and considerations that could have a strong impact on the outcomes of our model to end up providing recommendations and a checklist to facilitate the selection of the appropriate MASLD preclinical model based on clinical aims.

Crohn´s disease is an independent risk factor for liver fibrosis in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Controversial data have been reported regarding the prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) population and IBD-related risk factors. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence and risk factors associated with NAFLD and liver fibrosis in IBD participants compared with non-IBD controls. METHODS: Cross-sectional, case-control study including 741 IBD cases and 170 non-IBD controls, matched by sex and age. All participants underwent liver ultrasound, transient elastography and laboratory tests. A logistic regression multivariable analysis was performed adjusting for classic metabolic risk factors and history of systemic steroid use. RESULTS: The prevalence of NAFLD and significant liver fibrosis was 45 % and 10 % in IBD group, and 40 % and 2.9 % in non-IBD group (p = 0.255 and 0.062, respectively). Longer IBD duration (aOR 1.02 95% CI (1.001-1.04)) and older age at IBD diagnosis (aOR 1.02 95 % CI (1.001-1.04)) were independent risk factors for NAFLD in IBD group. Crohn´s Disease was an independent risk factor for significant liver fibrosis in participants with IBD and NAFLD (aOR 3.97 95 % CI (1.78-8.96)). NAFLD occurred at lower BMI levels in IBD group with NAFLD compared to non-IBD group with NAFLD (aOR 0.92 95 % CI (0.87-0.98)). CONCLUSIONS: Although we found no differences in the prevalence of NAFLD and liver fibrosis between IBD group and non-IBD group, our findings suggest that liver fibrosis progression should be closely monitored in patients with concomitant CD and NAFLD, more in particular in those with long standing active disease.

Serum identification of at-risk MASH: The metabolomics-advanced steatohepatitis fibrosis score (MASEF).

BACKGROUND: Early identification of those with NAFLD activity score ≥ 4 and significant fibrosis (≥F2) or at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is a priority as these patients are at increased risk for disease progression and may benefit from therapies. We developed and validated a highly specific metabolomics-driven score to identify at-risk MASH. METHODS: We included derivation (n = 790) and validation (n = 565) cohorts from international tertiary centers. Patients underwent laboratory assessment and liver biopsy for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. Based on 12 lipids, body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase, the MASEF score was developed to identify at-risk MASH and compared to the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score. We further compared the performance of a FIB-4 + MASEF algorithm to that of FIB-4 + liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). RESULTS: The diagnostic performance of the MASEF score showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.79), 0.69, 0.74, 0.53, and 0.85 in the derivation cohort, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.83), 0.78, 0.65, 0.48, and 0.88 in the validation cohort, while FibroScan-AST performance in the validation cohort was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.79; p = 0.064), 0.58, 0.79, 0.67, and 0.73, respectively. FIB-4+MASEF showed similar overall performance compared with FIB-4 + LSM by VCTE ( p = 0.69) to identify at-risk MASH. CONCLUSION: MASEF is a promising diagnostic tool for the assessment of at-risk MASH. It could be used alternatively to LSM by VCTE in the algorithm that is currently recommended by several guidance publications.

Circular RNAs in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Functions and clinical significance.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which affects approximately 25% of the global population, is an urgent health issue leading to various metabolic comorbidities. Circular RNAs (circRNAs), covalently closed RNA molecules, are characterized by ubiquity, diversity, stability, and conservatism. Indeed, they participate in various biological processes via distinct mechanisms that could modify the natural history of NAFLD. In this review, we briefly introduce the biogenesis, characteristics, and biological functions of circRNAs. Furthermore, we summarize circRNAs expression profiles in NAFLD by intersecting seven sequencing data sets and describe the cellular roles of circRNAs and their potential advantages as biomarkers of NAFLD. In addition, we emphatically discuss the exosomal non-coding RNA sorting mechanisms and possible functions in recipient cells. Finally, we extensively discuss the potential application of targeting disease-related circRNAs and competing endogenous RNA networks through gain-of-function and loss-of-function approaches in targeted therapy of NAFLD.

Liver cancer stem cell dissemination and metastasis: uncovering the role of NRCAM in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Liver cancer stem cells (LCSCs) play an important role in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the mechanisms that link LCSCs to HCC metastasis remain largely unknown. This study aims to reveal the contributions of NRCAM to LCSC function and HCC metastasis, and further explore its mechanism in detail. METHODS: 117 HCC and 29 non-HCC patients with focal liver lesions were collected and analyzed to assess the association between NRCAM and HCC metastasis. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) was used to explore the biological characteristics of cells with high NRCAM expression in metastatic HCC. The role and mechanism of NRCAM in LCSC dissemination and metastasis was explored in vitro and in vivo using MYC-driven LCSC organoids from murine liver cells. RESULTS: Serum NRCAM is associated with HCC metastasis and poor prognosis. A scRNA-seq analysis identified that NRCAM was highly expressed in LCSCs with MYC activation in metastatic HCC. Moreover, NRCAM facilitated LCSC migration and invasion, which was confirmed in MYC-driven LCSC organoids. The in vivo tumor allografts demonstrated that NRCAM mediated intra-hepatic/lung HCC metastasis by enhancing the ability of LCSCs to escape from tumors into the bloodstream. Nrcam expression inhibition in LCSCs blocked HCC metastasis. Mechanistically, NRCAM activated epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and metastasis-related matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) through the MACF1 mediated ß-catenin signaling pathway in LCSCs. CONCLUSIONS: LCSCs typified by high NRCAM expression have a strong ability to invade and migrate, which is an important factor leading to HCC metastasis.

Inflammatory Bowel Disease Is an Independent Risk Factor for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease in Lean Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Despite classical association between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and obesity, there is increasing evidence on the development of MASLD in lean individuals. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence and risk factors of MASLD and significant liver fibrosis in lean participants with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). METHODS: This was a cross-sectional, case-control study including 300 lean cases with IBD and 80 lean controls without IBD, matched by sex and age. All participants underwent a liver ultrasound, transient elastography, and laboratory tests. RESULTS: The lean IBD group showed a significantly higher prevalence of MASLD compared with lean non-IBD group (21.3% vs 10%; P = .022), but no differences were observed in the prevalence of significant liver fibrosis (4.7% vs 0.0%; P = 1.000). No differences were found between the prevalence of MASLD in IBD and non-IBD participants who were overweight/obese (66.8% vs 70.8%; P = .442). In addition, the prevalence of MASLD was significantly higher in the overweight/obese IBD group compared with the lean IBD group (P < .001). IBD was an independent risk factor for MASLD in lean participants (odds ratio [OR], 2.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-7.01; P = .04), after adjusting for classic metabolic risk factors and prior history of systemic steroid use. Nevertheless, no association between IBD related factors and MASLD was identified in lean IBD participants. When the overweight/obese and lean IBD groups with MASLD were compared, the overweight/obese IBD group with MASLD showed higher levels of the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.11-1.98; P = .007) and history of smoking (OR, 4.66; 95% CI, 1.17-18.49; P = .029). CONCLUSIONS: MASLD prevalence was higher in the lean IBD group compared with lean non-IBD group, independent of classic metabolic risk factors.

Neuroblastoma RAS viral oncogene homolog (N-RAS) deficiency aggravates liver injury and fibrosis.

Progressive hepatic damage and fibrosis are major features of chronic liver diseases of different etiology, yet the underlying molecular mechanisms remain to be fully defined. N-RAS, a member of the RAS family of small guanine nucleotide-binding proteins also encompassing the highly homologous H-RAS and K-RAS isoforms, was previously reported to modulate cell death and renal fibrosis; however, its role in liver damage and fibrogenesis remains unknown. Here, we approached this question by using N-RAS deficient (N-RAS-/-) mice and two experimental models of liver injury and fibrosis, namely carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) intoxication and bile duct ligation (BDL). In wild-type (N-RAS+/+) mice both hepatotoxic procedures augmented N-RAS expression in the liver. Compared to N-RAS+/+ counterparts, N-RAS-/- mice subjected to either CCl4 or BDL showed exacerbated liver injury and fibrosis, which was associated with enhanced hepatic stellate cell (HSC) activation and leukocyte infiltration in the damaged liver. At the molecular level, after CCl4 or BDL, N-RAS-/- livers exhibited augmented expression of necroptotic death markers along with JNK1/2 hyperactivation. In line with this, N-RAS ablation in a human hepatocytic cell line resulted in enhanced activation of JNK and necroptosis mediators in response to cell death stimuli. Of note, loss of hepatic N-RAS expression was characteristic of chronic liver disease patients with fibrosis. Collectively, our study unveils a novel role for N-RAS as a negative controller of the progression of liver injury and fibrogenesis, by critically downregulating signaling pathways leading to hepatocyte necroptosis. Furthermore, it suggests that N-RAS may be of potential clinical value as prognostic biomarker of progressive fibrotic liver damage, or as a novel therapeutic target for the treatment of chronic liver disease.

Development and validation of the AMMON-OHE model to predict risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy occurrence in outpatients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Neuropsychological and psychophysical tests are recommended to assess the risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE), but their accuracy is limited. Hyperammonaemia is central in the pathogenesis of OHE, but its predictive utility is unknown. In this study, we aimed to determine the role of neuropsychological or psychophysical tests and ammonia, and to develop a model (AMMON-OHE) to stratify the risk of subsequent OHE development in outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: This observational, prospective study included 426 outpatients without previous OHE from three liver units followed for a median of 2.5 years. Psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (PHES) <-4 or critical flicker frequency (CFF) <39 was considered abnormal. Ammonia was normalized to upper limit of normal (AMM-ULN) at the respective reference laboratory. Multivariable frailty competing risk and random survival forest analyses were performed to predict future OHE and to develop the AMMON-OHE model. External validation was carried out using 267 and 381 patients from two independent units. RESULTS: Significant differences were found in time-to-OHE (log-rank p <0.001) according to PHES or CFF and ammonia, with the highest risk in patients with abnormal PHES plus high AMM-ULN (hazard ratio 4.4; 95% CI 2.4-8.1; p <0.001 compared with normal PHES and AMM-ULN). On multivariable analysis, AMM-ULN but not PHES or CFF was an independent predictor of the development of OHE (hazard ratio 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.9; p = 0.015). The AMMON-OHE model (sex, diabetes, albumin, creatinine and AMM-ULN) showed a C-index of 0.844 and 0.728 for the prediction of a first episode of OHE in two external validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we developed and validated the AMMON-OHE model, comprising readily available clinical and biochemical variables that can be used to identify outpatients at the highest risk of developing a first episode of OHE. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In this study, we aimed to develop a model to predict which patients with cirrhosis are at risk of developing overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE). Using data from three units and including 426 outpatients with cirrhosis, we developed the AMMON-OHE model - comprising sex, diabetes, albumin, creatinine and ammonia levels - which demonstrated good predictive ability. The AMMON-OHE model performs better than PHES and CFF to predict the first episode of OHE in outpatients with cirrhosis. This model was validated in 267 and 381 patients from two independent liver units. The AMMON-OHE model is available online for clinical use.

Role of EpCAM+ CD133+ extracellular vesicles in steatosis to steatohepatitis transition in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Extracellular vesicles (EVs) have emerged as a potential source of circulating biomarkers in liver disease. We evaluated circulating AV+ EpCAM+ CD133+ EVs as a potential biomarker of the transition from simple steatosis to steatohepatitis. METHODS: EpCAM and CD133 liver proteins and EpCAM+ CD133+ EVs levels were analysed in 31 C57BL/6J mice fed with a chow or high fat, high cholesterol and carbohydrates diet (HFHCC) for 52 weeks. The hepatic origin of MVs was addressed using AlbCrexmT/mG mice fed a Western (WD) or Dual diet for 23 weeks. Besides, we assessed plasma MVs in 130 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients. RESULTS: Hepatic expression of EpCAM and CD133 and EpCAM+ CD133+ EVs increased during disease progression in HFHCC mice. GFP+ MVs were higher in AlbCrexmT/mG mice fed a WD (5.2% vs 12.1%) or a Dual diet (0.5% vs 7.3%). Most GFP+ MVs were also positive for EpCAM and CD133 (98.3% and 92.9% respectively), suggesting their hepatic origin. In 71 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients, EpCAM+ CD133+ EVs were significantly higher in those with steatohepatitis compare to those with simple steatosis (286.4 ± 61.9 vs 758.4 ± 82.3; p < 0.001). Patients with ballooning 367 ± 40.6 vs 532.0 ± 45.1; p = 0.01 and lobular inflammation (321.1 ± 74.1 vs 721.4 ± 80.1; p = 0.001), showed higher levels of these EVs. These findings were replicated in an independent cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating levels of EpCAM+ CD133+ MVs in clinical and experimental NAFLD were increased in the presence of steatohepatitis, showing high potential as a non-invasive biomarker for the evaluation and management of these patients.

An individual patient data meta-analysis to determine cut-offs for and confounders of NAFLD-fibrosis staging with magnetic resonance elastography.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis to establish stiffness cut-off values for magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) in staging liver fibrosis and to assess potential confounding factors. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature identified studies reporting MRE data in patients with NAFLD. Data were obtained from the corresponding authors. The pooled diagnostic cut-off value for the various fibrosis stages was determined in a two-stage meta-analysis. Multilevel modelling methods were used to analyse potential confounding factors influencing the diagnostic accuracy of MRE in staging liver fibrosis. RESULTS: Eight independent cohorts comprising 798 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for MRE in detecting significant fibrosis was 0.92 (sensitivity, 79%; specificity, 89%). For advanced fibrosis, the AUROC was 0.92 (sensitivity, 87%; specificity, 88%). For cirrhosis, the AUROC was 0.94 (sensitivity, 88%, specificity, 89%). Cut-offs were defined to explore concordance between MRE and histopathology: ≥F2, 3.14 kPa (pretest probability, 39.4%); ≥F3, 3.53 kPa (pretest probability, 24.1%); and F4, 4.45 kPa (pretest probability, 8.7%). In generalized linear mixed model analysis, histological steatohepatitis with higher inflammatory activity (odds ratio 2.448, 95% CI 1.180-5.079, p <0.05) and high gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) concentration (>120U/L) (odds ratio 3.388, 95% CI 1.577-7.278, p <0.01] were significantly associated with elevated liver stiffness, and thus affecting accuracy in staging early fibrosis (F0-F1). Steatosis, as measured by magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction, and body mass index(BMI) were not confounders. CONCLUSIONS: MRE has excellent diagnostic performance for significant, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with NAFLD. Elevated inflammatory activity and GGT level may lead to overestimation of early liver fibrosis, but anthropometric measures such as BMI or the degree of steatosis do not. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This individual patient data meta-analysis of eight international cohorts, including 798 patients, demonstrated that MRE achieves excellent diagnostic accuracy for significant, advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with NAFLD. Cut-off values (significant fibrosis, 3.14 kPa; advanced fibrosis, 3.53 kPa; and cirrhosis, 4.45 kPa) were established. Elevated inflammatory activity and gamma-glutamyltransferase level may affect the diagnostic accuracy of MRE, leading to overestimation of liver fibrosis in early stages. We observed no impact of diabetes, obesity, or any other metabolic disorder on the diagnostic accuracy of MRE.

Circulating bone morphogenetic protein 8A is a novel biomarker to predict advanced liver fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Advanced hepatic fibrosis is the main risk factor of liver-related morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. In this study, we assessed the potential role of bone morphogenetic protein 8A (BMP8A) as a novel target involved in liver fibrosis progression. METHODS: Histological assessment and BMP8A expression were determined in different murine models of hepatic fibrosis. Furthermore, serum BMP8A was measured in mice with bile duct ligation (BDL), in 36 subjects with histologically normal liver (NL) and in 85 patients with biopsy-proven non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH): 52 with non- or mild fibrosis (F0-F2) and 33 with advanced fibrosis (F3-F4). BMP8A expression and secretion was also determined in cultured human hepatocyte-derived (Huh7) and human hepatic stellate (LX2) cells stimulated with transforming growth factor ꞵ (TGFꞵ). RESULTS: Bmp8a mRNA levels were significantly upregulated in livers from fibrotic mice compared to control animals. Notably, serum BMP8A levels were also elevated in BDL mice. In addition, in vitro experiments showed increased expression and secretion to the culture supernatant of BMP8A in both Huh7 and LX2 cells treated with TGFꞵ. Noteworthy, we found that serum BMP8A levels were significantly higher in NASH patients with advanced fibrosis than in those with non- or mild fibrosis. In fact, the AUROC of circulating BMP8A concentrations to identify patients with advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) was 0.74 (p˂0.0001). Moreover, we developed an algorithm based on serum BMP8A levels that showed an AUROC of 0.818 (p˂0.0001) to predict advanced fibrosis in NASH patients. CONCLUSION: This study provides experimental and clinical evidence indicating that BMP8A is a novel molecular target linked to liver fibrosis and introduces an efficient algorithm based on serum BMP8A levels to screen patients at risk for advanced hepatic fibrosis.

Predicting liver-related events in NAFLD: A predictive model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Management of NAFLD involves noninvasive prediction of fibrosis, which is a surrogate for patient outcomes. We aimed to develop and validate a model predictive of liver-related events (LREs) of decompensation and/or HCC and compare its accuracy with fibrosis models. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients with NAFLD from Australia and Spain who were followed for up to 28 years formed derivation (n = 584) and validation (n = 477) cohorts. Competing risk regression and information criteria were used for model development. Accuracy was compared with fibrosis models using time-dependent AUC analysis. During follow-up, LREs occurred in 52 (9%) and 11 (2.3%) patients in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, type 2 diabetes, albumin, bilirubin, platelet count, and international normalized ratio were independent predictors of LRE and were combined into a model [NAFLD outcomes score (NOS)]. The NOS model calibrated well [calibration slope, 0.99 (derivation), 0.98 (validation)] with excellent overall performance [integrated Brier score, 0.07 (derivation) and 0.01 (validation)]. A cutoff ≥1.3 identified subjects at a higher risk of LRE, (sub-HR 24.6, p < 0.001, 5-year cumulative incidence 38% vs 1.0%, respectively). The predictive accuracy at 5 and 10 years was excellent in both derivation (time-dependent AUC,0.92 and 0.90, respectively) and validation cohorts (time-dependent AUC,0.80 and 0.82, respectively). The NOS was more accurate than the fibrosis-4 or NAFLD fibrosis score for predicting LREs at 5 and 10 years ( p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The NOS model consists of readily available measures and has greater accuracy in predicting outcomes in patients with NAFLD than existing fibrosis models.